Japan Stocks Set to Fall on Rate Hike Fears After Shigeru Ishiba’s Win | DunyaToday

Shigeru Ishiba ki recent jeet ka Japan ke stock market par significant asar hoga Japan Stocks Set to Fall on Rate Hike Fears After Shigeru Ishiba’s Win, aur yeh asar market mein volatility ke roop mein dikhne wala hai. Ishiba ka ruling party mein jeetna ek aise waqt pe hua hai jab investors pehle se uncertain the aur ab unke plans, jo interest rates badhane ki taraf jaa rahe hain, economy aur stock market dono par significant impact daal sakte hain. Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures mein 6% ki girawat dekhne ko mili Osaka mein, immediately after Ishiba ka selection Friday ko announce kiya gaya. Yeh girawat tab hui jab Tokyo mein trading close ho chuki thi. Nikkei 225 ne is announcement ke pehle, Sanae Takaichi ke jeetne ki umeed mein 2.3% ka jump liya tha, kyunki Takaichi interest rates badhane ke khilaaf thi.

Shigeru Ishiba Ki Victory Ke Baad Market Reaction

Shigeru Ishiba ki surprise victory ne Japanese stock market ko ek unpredictable aur volatile position mein daal diya hai. Analysts ka kehna hai ki jab tak Ishiba ke economic aur financial policies ka clear roadmap saamne nahi aata, tab tak market mein bade fluctuations dekhne ko milenge. Yeh fluctuations ek tarah se traders aur investors ke liye risk create karte hain, jo clear direction ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Pehle traders ko laga tha ki Sanae Takaichi ki jeet hogi, jinhone interest rates ko badhane ka virodh kiya tha, aur is wajah se unhone market mein temporary boost de diya tha, jisse 2.3% ka growth dekhne ko mila. Lekin jab final results aaye aur Ishiba ko jeet mili, toh Nikkei futures ekdam se 6% gir gaya, jo uncertainty ka indication tha.

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Currency Market Aur Yen Ka Impact

Shigeru Ishiba ki jeet ke saath Japanese yen kaafi tezi se mazboot hota gaya. Yen ka strengthen hona export-based companies ke liye nuksan ka kaaran ban sakta hai, kyunki ek strong yen ka matlab hota hai Japanese products ka international market mein mehnga ho jaana. Jaisa ki yen aur strong hoga, waise-waise Japan ke exporters ko apne sales aur profits mein issues face karne padenge. Ek strong yen unka competitive edge international markets mein kamzor kar dega.

Dusri taraf, financial institutions aur banks ko is situation ka faayda ho sakta hai. Yen ke strong hone aur interest rates ke badhne ke wajah se banks ke profits badhne ke chances hai, kyunki unhe higher returns milenge. Zyada interest rates ka matlab hota hai higher borrowing cost, lekin financial institutions ke liye yeh ek achha opportunity ho sakta hai profits ko improve karne ka.

Ishiba Ki Policies Aur Military Sector Ka Impact

Shigeru Ishiba ke jeetne se sirf economic policies nahi, balki military aur defense sector bhi asar mein aayega. Ishiba ne apne campaign ke dauraan military ko strengthen karne par kaafi focus kiya tha. Unhone Japan ke defense budget ko badhane aur military expansion ke liye kaafi clear stance diya tha. Analysts ka kehna hai ki agar yeh policies implement hoti hain, toh defense sector ke stocks mein kaafi faayda dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Defense companies jo military equipment banati hain ya military contracts handle karti hain, unke liye yeh ek golden opportunity ho sakti hai.

Agar aap defense sector mein invest karne ka plan bana rahe hain, toh abhi achha time hai, kyunki yeh sector aane wale dino mein achha performance dikhane wala hai. Ishiba ke military expansion aur defense budget ko badhane ke plans ka asar sirf Japan ke andar nahi, balki international market mein bhi dikhne ka chance hai.

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Analysts Ki Rai: Volatility Kaafi Expected Hai

Okasan Securities ki strategist Rina Oshimo kehte hain ki week ki shuruaat kaafi volatile hone wali hai. Ishiba ne fiscal consolidation aur strict financial policies ka samarthan kiya hai, jiska direct asar yen ki appreciation par ho sakta hai. Yen ke strong hone ke wajah se Japanese equities ke liye ek bada headwind create ho sakta hai, jo market fluctuations ko aur bhi intense bana sakta hai. Yani investors ke liye yeh waqt thoda risky ho sakta hai.

Analysts kehte hain ki jab tak Ishiba ki fiscal aur monetary policies ka clear picture saamne nahi aata, tab tak market swings dekhne ko milte rahenge. Yen ki appreciation ek aisi situation create karegi jisme export-heavy sectors ko nuksan ho sakta hai, lekin domestic sectors ko iska faayda milne ka chance hai.

Bank of Japan Aur Ishiba Ka Approach

Shigeru Ishiba ne apne campaign ke dauraan yeh clear kiya tha ki wo Bank of Japan ki independence ko support karte hain. Unka kehna hai ki Bank of Japan ka monetary easing policy kaafi time se deflation ko rokne ke liye follow kiya ja raha hai, aur yeh process ab bhi jaari rahega. Fuji TV ke ek interview mein Ishiba ne kaha ki unki priority hai deflation ko khatam karna, aur iske liye Bank of Japan ko apni monetary easing policy continue karni chahiye.

Deflation ko khatam karna Japan ki economy ke liye crucial hai, kyunki deflation ka matlab hota hai prices ka consistently girna, jo economic growth ke liye negative hota hai. Ishiba ka kehna hai ki jab tak deflation khatam nahi hota, tab tak economic growth stable nahi ho sakti, aur isi liye unhone Bank of Japan ki existing policies ko support karne ka wada kiya hai.

Investment Income Par Capital Gains Tax Ka Mudda

Shigeru Ishiba ke baare mein pehle reports aayi thi ki unhone capital gains tax ko badhane ki baat ki thi. Capital gains tax, jo investors ke profits par lagta hai jab wo stocks ya assets bechte hain, ko badhana ek sensitive topic hai. Jab 2021 mein Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ne capital gains tax badhane ka proposal diya tha, tab Nikkei 225 mein kaafi girawat dekhne ko mili thi. Isko "Kishida shock" ke naam se jaana gaya tha.

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Fumio Kishida ne uss waqt apne plan ko wapas le liya tha, jisse market ko thoda relief mila tha. Lekin ab jab Shigeru Ishiba ne similar baat ki hai, toh market mein dar hai ki kahin waise halat phir se na ho jaaye. Investors ko lagta hai ki agar capital gains tax badha, toh market par iska negative impact ho sakta hai, aur ek aur "shock" dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Stock Market Ki Recovery: Yen Weakness Aur Corporate Reforms

Japanese stock market ne 2023 ke early months mein kaafi recovery ki hai. Yen ki weakness aur corporate governance reforms ke baare mein optimism se market ne boost liya. Warren Buffet ka endorsement bhi Nikkei 225 ko boost karne mein kaafi madadgar raha. Nikkei 225 ne is saal ke shuruaat mein record highs touch kiye, jo investors ke liye ek positive signal tha.

Lekin August 2023 mein Bank of Japan ke rate hike announce karne ke baad yen kaafi upar chala gaya, aur Japanese stocks ek tarah se global stock market rout ke epicenter ban gaye. Yen ki strength aur higher interest rates ne market ko thoda bearish bana diya, lekin corporate reforms aur other positive developments ne thoda balance banaye rakha hai.

Regional Economy Ko Support Karne Ke Liye Ishiba Ke Steps

Shigeru Ishiba ne apne campaign ke dauraan yeh bhi kaha tha ki wo Japan ki rural economy ko support karna chahte hain. Rural areas jo economic development mein thoda piche rahe hain, unhe regional revitalization measures ke through faayda diya jayega. Jo companies regional markets mein kaam kar rahi hain, unke stocks aane wale waqt mein kaafi preferred ban sakte hain, kyunki regional development aur domestic demand ko focus kiya jaa raha hai.

Hirofumi Kasai, jo Tokio Marine Asset Management mein senior strategist hain, kehte hain ki Japan abhi deflationary period se nikal raha hai, aur isliye domestically oriented stocks, jo local demand se faayda uthaate hain, unpe investors ka focus badhne wala hai.

Investors Ka Focus: Domestic Demand-Oriented Stocks

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities ne bhi investors ko yahi advise diya hai ki wo domestic demand-oriented stocks par focus karein, jab tak corporate tax burden aur interest rates ke concerns clear nahi ho jaate. Domestic demand-oriented stocks wo hote hain jo Japan ke andar ki demand par zyada dependent hote hain, aur international market ke fluctuations se thode immune hote hain. Yeh sectors filhal thoda stable dikh rahe hain aur isliye investors ko yaha par zyada returns milne ke chances hain.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ne bhi investors ko yeh warning di hai ki volatility short term mein continue rahegi jab tak Ishiba apne policies ko clear nahi karte. Corporate governance reforms aur financial asset income tax rates ko lekar abhi bhi clarity ka intezaar hai, jo market ke sentiments ko affect kar raha hai.

General Election Aur Future Policy Clarity

Japan ke parliament se umeed ki ja rahi hai ki 67-year-old Shigeru Ishiba ko October 1 ko prime minister ke roop mein confirm kiya jaayega. Investors ka agla focus general election ke timing par hoga, aur economic data aur US election ke outcomes par bhi depend karega. Ishiba ki policies ka asar direct Japanese stock market par padne wala hai, aur yeh volatility filhaal thodi der tak continue reh sakti hai.

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Conclusion: Ishiba Ki Victory Ka Impact Aur Aage Ki Rah

Shigeru Ishiba ki jeet Japan ke stock market ke liye ek turning point ho sakti hai. Jab tak Ishiba apne policies ko clear nahi karte, tab tak market mein fluctuations bane rahenge. Interest rates badhne ke dar se market mein bearish sentiment abhi bhi zyada hai, lekin jo companies defense, banking, aur domestically oriented hain, unhe aane wale waqt mein faayda ho sakta hai.

Investors ke liye abhi cautious rehna zaroori hai. Market trends aur Ishiba ki financial policies ko closely monitor karna hoga, aur investments ko diversify karna zaroori hoga taaki risk ko minimize kiya ja sake.